I found a website with some information that I have wondered about for many years. As I’ve learned about local Erie history, I’ve always had this sense that Erie was quite the big deal in the distant past. I ran across a report from the US. Census Bureau, detailing the population of the 100 largest cities in the US over the history of the census. Compared to many East Coast cities, Erie is relatively young, but it grew in a hurry. The city was incorporated in 1851, and showed up in the top 100 with the 1870 census, with its 19,646 putting Erie at #72. Charts and graphs below…

Here’s how the rankings played out over the next 100 years:

Erie Ranking Chart

As you can imagine, population soared over those years as well:

Erie Population Trends while in the US Top 100

Obviously, we didn’t show in 1970…or have we since. With the 2000 census having our population at 103,717, we stand at 74.9% of our maximum population.

On this site, I found an analysis of our current metro population ranking and a forecast of where we’ll stand in the year 2020. In the last census, the Erie metro (Erie County) had a population of 280,729, good for a rank of #155. The Census Bureau estimates that we lost about 1,000 people through July 2006, dropping us to #161. The forecast for 2020 that we will lose 2.26% more of our population, putting us at 274,379 or a national ranking of #178.

The negative population growth of -2.26% puts our growth ranking at #322 out of #363. One bright spot: we will lose less people as a percentage of current population than big city neighbors Cleveland, Youngstown, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, whose metro will be 9% smaller over the focus period. The fastest growing metro in PA through 2020: York-Hanover, with a 31% growth rate. The metro with the highest projected growth: Palm Coast, FL with a 225% growth rate!

Population growth means buying power and economic stability. The shrinking (and aging) of our metro area means a lower quality of life for all, whether you live in the city, Millcreek or in the county. As the kids in High School Musical 2 sing: “We’re all in this together…”