The summer of my 16th birthday, I had a great part in the annual Erie School District Summer Theatre program at Tech Memorial (it’s called Footlights Theatre now, directed by an alumnus from my era, David Mitchell). The show that year was The Music Man, the story of a con man going legit in River City, Iowa. I played the grocer Ewart Dunlop, one of the school board/quartet members.  Until Harold Hill taught us to sing in harmony, we played those school board members as bullheaded, stubborn and argumentative, just like in the song “Iowa Stubborn”.

Not since that summer show have I paid so much attention to Iowa as I have in the past month. So tonight, on the eve of that state’s caucuses (the Latin neuter plural would be “cauci”) pretty much anyone interested on where our country is headed is holding their breaths to see what those Hawkeyes are going to decide as far as candidates go.

Pre-caucus polls are not much help, only showing a slight edge to Sen. Obama for the Democrats, and Gov. Huckabee for the Republicans. It really is anyone’s show, which makes me wonder if after the incredible millions of dollars spent and hundreds of hours campaigning, that Iowa will turn out to be mostly inconsequential in the long run.

Remember, in the not too distant past, the Iowa caucuses were a novelty, a place where fringe candidates (remember when Pat Robertson won?) could get some bragging rights, maybe a fundraising bounce, and not much else. New Hampshire was always the starter state, with Super Tuesday really sifting out the winners and losers.

This wacko front-loaded primary schedule in 2008 is supposed to make Iowa and New Hampshire ultra-critical, but I’m not seeing that. I think that for the top-funded candidates, this horse race is going to be fluid for at least a month, through Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th. Certainly we should have apparent winners by the time the Pennsylvania primary rolls around on April 22nd.  But for now, the most open presidential race in a half-century remains wide open, no matter what those stubborn Hawkeyes decide.