Two governor VP’s could flip their battlegrounds

The Erie paper has a front page article this morning analyzing the possible running mates for the two presumptive nominees. This comes after the hug-fest between former PA Governor Tom Ridge and Republican Senator John McCain early this week. The ETN suggests that current Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell could make a good number two to Senator Barack Obama run, admitting though that Mr. Rendell has articulated his lack of interest multiple times.

All of this talk has the premise behind it that Pennsylvania is in play for the General Election. My take is that since you have to roll back twenty years to find the most recent Republican Presidential candidate to win the Commonwealth when Bush 41 took the state over a flawed Dukakis, this state is Obama’s to lose.

On the other side of the Commonwealth continuum, you have Virginia, which used to be a safe take for the GOP. But with the population growth in Northern Virginia turning the Old Dominion to the left, we could be enduring a Beltway-sized wait on election night to color the state red or blue.

However, the inclusion of governors from each state as the vice-president pick could be enough of a catalytic event to flip these battleground states. For PA, the popular Tom Ridge brings a national presence from being the original Homeland Security secretary. His biggest and perhaps insurmountable negative is his pro-choice abortion stance. Ridge’s inclusion on the ticket could turn the state red, yet have little impact on McCain’s likeability in the Midwest and South.

Likewise, if Obama were to pick Tim Kaine, the current Governor of Virginia, it would probably generate enough momentum to bring the state to the blue tipping point.

It really depends on the math: as the campaigns run their models if they find that the electoral votes of Pennsylvania and Virginia are so critical to the success of either campaign, you just might see this scenario play out. That’s if you believe that VP choices even matter to voters anyway.

Erie radio ratings: the bloom is off the Bob

The Spring Arbitrons have been released and the competition for the ears of Erie is more heated than ever. Long gone are the days of the near 20 share of audience celebrated by Star 104. In this latest book Star is tied for 1st place with Classy 100 in Total Persons 12+ for the entire broadcasting week. The big story is the blasting of Bob, with WXBB losing almost half of its audience in the year since its debut in early 2007. Last spring Bob was tops 12+; this spring he tied for 4th with Country 98, who beat The Wolf handily. And will somebody put a fork in the 1330 signal?!?! The once glorious home of WRIE has not been a factor on Erie radio in decades.

In fact, the story of this book if the trends hold up is that there really aren’t enough Classic Rock, Country, and Sports listeners to support two stations each in those formats. Hopefully our operators will get that someday and we might see a Smooth Jazz, Real Oldies, or FM Talk station eventually.

Finally, it was actually somewhat of a weird book, with stations in Ashtabula, Warren, Meadville, and Southern Ontario showing up. That usually means that folks south of I-90 got a bunch of diaries. Still the sample is such that it is a good estimate of where listeners lie. Now if we could just get the advertisers excited again about terrestrial radio!

UPDATED: The ratings are available on RadioandRecords.com (no registration required).

Learning about children and anxiety

In preparing for my talk, “What are you afraid of?” this past weekend at McLane Church, I shot a video interview with my brother Jeff Natalie, who is a prominent family counselor in Erie and founder of the ErieKIDS.org website. You can reach him through the site. I thought his insight on children and fear was really helpful and I want to share the entire interview with you. The YouTube video is embedded below.

I’m speaking this weekend at McLane Church

I have the privilege to speak at my church this weekend where I serve as the Director of Communications and Technology for McLane Church. My talk is called, “What are you afraid of?” and it focuses on my faith journey, and my battle over fear, which has been a prominent thread in my life.

If you’d like to come listen here are the times and locations (yes, I’ll be doing all five…four live, one video):

McLane Church-Edinboro - 12511 Edinboro Road, Edinboro:  Sat. at 6 PM, Sun. at 9 & 11 AM

McLane Church-Union City - 105 Concord Street (Union City High School Audi.), Union City: Sun. at 11 AM

McLane “church in a bar”-Erie - 1213 State Street (The CellBlock), Erie: Sun. at 7 PM

If you miss it, don’t worry, it will be on the McLane audio podcast this week.

Brady: a man for our times

There is a heated discussion going on at Outside Erie regarding the quality of Erie’s political leadership. Many are pining for globally-minded, progressive, forward-thinking leaders to guide our community through this sea of change here in the 21st century.

With that in mind, while I was doing some random Googling, I came across this article about famous figures in Erie history and was reading a very interesting article about Erie lawyers in the 1800’s and early 1900’s. Included was a few paragraphs about the Hon. John C. Brady.

Simply put, Brady was a fascinating fellow. Born in Iowa, he became a lawyer in Erie at age 21, but according to Memoirs of the Erie County, Pennsylvania, Bench and Bar, he “had such a good business head that “financially he could not afford to practice law.” He went on to establish the second electric trolley system built in the U.S. here in Erie, created Waldameer Park, and in 1887 was drafted as an independent candidate for mayor and won, serving one term. The article quotes that “he made one of the most efficient executives in the history of the city.”

With today’s leadership wilting under the complexity of a global economy, the brain drain of our young people, and the sheer lack of big dreams and successful attitude, we need a bright star to lead our community. We need a 21st century John Brady, Esq.

Who came up with ‘Dreary Erie’?

After an amazing summer weekend in Northwestern Pennsylvania, I’m thinking that the person who coined the slogan “Dreary Erie, the mistake on the lake” should be certified.

Even with rain, this extended weekend my family is totally embracing some of the excellent resources available to us in this neck of the woods. We spent a couple days camping at Cook Forest State Park, headed to a family graduation party that was really fun, and now have some sun and fun at Waldameer to look forward to before I go back to work. I wanted to attend the Rust Belt Bloggers summit, but it was just too good of a weekend for a getaway.

You don’t need me to give you a laundry list of the wonderful attributes that our region has to offer. But I do want to encourage you to do two things:

First, you need to get your “hugging hands” out and do the Erie, PA embrace. I have to admit that even after living here 41 of my 46 years (I was one of those brain drainers who got out in my 20’s, then came back when the kids started coming), there are many cool things in Erie that I haven’t experienced, like wine tasting in North East, the Firefighter’s museum, an art gallery opening, and I’m ashamed to say, it’s been a really long time since I’ve been to a Playhouse show. It just takes a little creativity and investment of time and sometimes money, and you can experience so much more of the quality of life that you might feel like you are missing. The Erie Times News does a great job of keeping us informed of all of things that are going on from parish festivals to band concerts. You might just find some weird, awesome, random event that totally exemplifies our town.

The other thing you, and I, need to do is not take our town for granted, because so many of the organizations and entities that create cool things in Erie are hanging on by a thread. You see, with very little growth in population and buying power of our fellow residents, and with the rising cost of everything, the organizations that are Erie’s backbone are getting squeezed. Instantly what comes to mind are the Marx Toy Museum and the Joel 2 ministry to the poor. There are just two examples of Erie assets that needed our help and either we didn’t know it or weren’t quick enough to help.

I love the idea that people from Pittsburgh and Youngstown come to our town to vacation. Think about the money they are willing to spend here, and how they embrace the Erie experience! Nothing dreary about that.

What’s Big Media to do?

The Scorched Earth has come to a newspaper near you.

The internet is filled with news about the news. It turns out that last week was a tragic one for newspaper employment, as 1000 newspaper-related layoffs were announced, probably to help prop up flagging stock prices. Timothy Egan in his NY Times blog makes the point that even though the reach of newspapers through their online divisions has their content consumed by more people than ever, the financial reality of steeply-declining ad sales in their “ink on paper” editions is ruining these once-great editorial machines.

The other big story in media this week is the gigantic $400 million contract that Rush Limbaugh received. It extends his deal through the 2016 presidential election year and perhaps is a good indicator of where that other old medium, radio is going.

So let’s do a little hand-wringing. Read the rest of this entry »